Construction and Implementation of a Crash Prediction Model on Two-Way Suburban Two-Lane Roads (Case Study: Qazvin-Avaj Road)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Bitumen and Asphalt Department, Road, Housing and Urban Development Research Center, Tehran, Iran.

10.22034/jcema.2021.128589

Abstract

Improving the level of road safety requires research that measures the effects of various variables on the frequency of accidents and takes practical measures to improve the level of road safety. In this study, first, the two inseparable axes of the Qazvin-Avaj suburban line were selected as a case study, and accident information was collected in the mentioned axis for the years 2010 to 2012. The number of accidents was selected as a dependent variable, and the variables of number of access roads and intersections, number of horizontal curves, and hourly traffic volume were selected as independent variables for modeling. The length of the day and night, depending on the spring and autumn hours, was divided into two parts, night and day, and a corresponding model was developed for each of them. In the end, the results were reported in such a way that the importance of effective variables in the day model is: number of access roads and intersections, hourly traffic volume, and then the number of horizontal arches. While for the night model, the variable number of horizontal arches had the most effect, followed by the number of access roads and intersections, and the least effective variable for the night model was the volume of hourly traffic.

Keywords


[1] Ameri M, Shaker H, Badarloo B, Jafari F. Numerical and Experimental Investigation on the Modified of Hot Mix Asphalt Concrete Containing Crumb Rubber and Waste Pet. Tehnički vjesnik. 2020 Aug 15;27(4):1186-93. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[2] Rad VB, Ngah IB. ASSESSMENT OF QUALITY OF PUBLIC URBAN SPACES. Science International. 2014 Jan 1;26(1). [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[3] Najafpour H, Bigdeli Rad V, Lamit H, Fitry SM. The Systematic Review on Quality Of life in urban neighborhoods. Life Sci J. 2014;11(7):355-64. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[4] Sarhadi F, Rad VB. The structural model for thermal comfort based on perceptions individuals in open urban spaces. Building and Environment. 2020 Nov 1;185:107260. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[5] Bigdeli Rad V. The Impact of Government Policies on Citizen Participation in the Reconstruction of the Deteriorated Fabrics in District 17 of Tehran Municipality. Armanshahr Architecture & Urban Development. 2019 Jun 19;12(26):113-24. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[6] Lin CY, Koohsari MJ, Liao Y, Ishii K, Shibata A, Nakaya T, McCormack GR, Hadgraft N, Owen N, Oka K. Workplace neighbourhood built environment and workers’ physically-active and sedentary behaviour: a systematic review of observational studies. International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity. 2020 Dec;17(1):1-24. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[7] Farazmand P, Hayati P, Shaker H, Rezaei S. Relationship between microscopic analysis and quantitative and qualitative indicators of moisture susceptibility evaluation of warm-mix asphalt mixtures containing modifiers. Frattura ed Integrità Strutturale. 2020;14(51):215-24. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[8] Abdi A, Bigdeli Rad H, Azimi E. Simulation and analysis of traffic flow for traffic calming. In Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Municipal Engineer 2017 Mar (Vol. 170, No. 1, pp. 16-28). Thomas Telford Ltd. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[9] Rad VB, Najafpour H, Ngah I, Shieh E, Rad HB, Qazvin I. The Systematic Review on Physical Activity in Urban Neighborhoods. Life Science Journal. 2014;11(9). [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[10] Bigdeli Rad H, Bigdeli Rad V. A Survey on the Rate of Public Satisfaction about Subway Facilities in the City of Tehran Using Servqual Model. Space Ontology International Journal. 2018 Mar 1;7(1):9-15. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[11] Ameri M, Nemati M, Shaker H. Experimental and numerical investigation of the properties of the Hot Mix Asphalt Concrete with basalt and glass fiber. Frattura ed Integrità Strutturale. 2019 Aug 30; 13(50):149-62. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[12] Knuiman MW, Council FM, Reinfurt DW. Association of median width and highway accident rates (with discussion and closure). Transportation Research Record. 1993; 1401:70-82. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[13] Vogt A, Bared J. Accident models for two-lane rural segments and intersections. Transportation Research Record. 1998;1635(1):18-29. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[14] Persaud B, Lyon C, Nguyen T. Empirical Bayes procedure for ranking sites for safety investigation by potential for safety improvement. Transportation research record. 1999;1665(1):7-12. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[15] Oh C, Oh JS, Ritchie S, Chang M. Real-time estimation of freeway accident likelihood. In80th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC 2001 Jan 7. [View at Google Scholar]
[16] Shaker H, Bigdeli Rad H. Evaluation and Simulation of New Roundabouts Traffic Parameters by Aimsun Software. Journal of Civil Engineering and Materials Application. 2018 Sep 1;2(3):146-58. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[17] Thornton M, Lyles RW. Freeway speed zones: Safety and compliance issues. Transportation research record. 1996 Jan;1560(1):65-72. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[18] Lave CA. Speeding, coordination, and the 55 mph limit. The American Economic Review. 1985 Dec 1;75(5):1159-64. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[20] Mayora JM, Rubio RL. Relevant variables for crash rate prediction in Spain’s two lane rural roads. InProceedings of the 82nd Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, USA 2003 Jan. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[21] Hadayeghi A, Shalaby AS, Persaud BN. Development of planning level transportation safety tools using Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 2010 Mar 1;42(2):676-88. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[22] Kordani AA, Bigdelirad H, Boroomandrad SM. Scheduling of Bus Fleet Departure Time Based on Mathematical Model of Number of Bus Stops for Municipality Bus Organization. International Journal of Urban and Civil Engineering. 2019 Aug 3;13(9):610-3. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[23] Ma J, Kockelman KM, Damien P. A multivariate Poisson-lognormal regression model for prediction of crash counts by severity, using Bayesian methods. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 2008 May 1;40(3):964-75. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[24] Lord D, Washington S, Ivan JN. Further notes on the application of zero-inflated models in highway safety. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 2007 Jan 1;39(1):53-7. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[25] Abdi A, Mosadeq Z, Bigdeli Rad H. Prioritizing Factors Affecting Road Safety Using Fuzzy Hierarchical Analysis. Journal of Transportation Research. 2020 Sep 22;17(3):33-44. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[26] AFANDI ZS, BIGDELI RH, SHAKER H. Using optimization and metaheuristic method to reduce the bus headway (Case study: Qazvin Bus Routes). [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[27] Ma J, Kockelman KM. Bayesian multivariate Poisson regression for models of injury count, by severity. Transportation Research Record. 2006;1950(1):24-34. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[28] Ameri A, Bigdeli Rad H, Shaker H, Ameri M. Cellular Transmission and Optimization Model Development to Determine the Distances between Variable Message Signs. Journal of Transportation Infrastructure Engineering. 2020 Jul 5. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[29] Lord D, Mannering F. The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: a review and assessment of methodological alternatives. Transportation research part A: policy and practice. 2010 Jun 1;44(5):291-305. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[30] Miaou SP, Hu PS, Wright T, Rathi AK, Davis SC. Relationship between truck accidents and highway geometric design: a Poisson regression approach. Transportation Research Record. 1992(1376). [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[31] Yau KK, Lee AH. Zero‐inflated Poisson regression with random effects to evaluate an occupational injury prevention programme. Statistics in medicine. 2001 Oct 15;20(19):2907-20. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[32] Rad VB, Najafpour H, Ngah I, Shieh E, Rashvand P, Rad HB. What Are The Safety Factors Associating with Physical Activity in Urban Neighborhoods?(A Systematic Review). J. Appl. Environ. Biol. Sci. 2015;5(3):259-66. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[33] Famoye F, Singh KP. Zero-inflated generalized Poisson regression model with an application to domestic violence data. Journal of Data Science. 2006 Jan 1;4(1):117-30. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[34] Hall DB. Zero‐inflated Poisson and binomial regression with random effects: a case study. Biometrics. 2000 Dec;56(4):1030-9. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]
[35] Bigdeli Rad V, Najafpour H, Shieh E, Bigdeli Rad H. Questionnaire Design: Relation of Physical Activity and Safety. 2019, IUST, Jun 10;29(1):113-23. [View at Google Scholar]; [View at Publisher]